RISEx Perpkin Spice Season: $50,000 and a Perpkin Pie on the table Perpkin Spice Season is a four-week RISEx trading competition. $50,000 split pro rata by score, plus the Perpkin Pie, a community goal that unlocks a Mystery Prize Lucky Draw at $1B.
RISEx Hot payrolls put a December Fed hike in play going into CPI week A payrolls beat took December Fed hike odds to about 77% to 80%, and Tuesday's CPI is the last print before the meeting. AI earnings from CoreWeave and Applied Materials follow a 6.5% Nasdaq 100 drop
RISEx Midterms, payrolls and no Fed: the week after a record exchange hack The largest crypto theft on record landed last Thursday, and bitcoin closed the week near $77,300. With no Fed meeting, Tuesday's US midterms, four central banks and Friday's payrolls are the next tests
RISEx Five central banks and Big Tech earnings follow last week's AI selloff Five central banks decide between Tuesday and Friday, and Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon report in the same stretch. After last Thursday's 6.7% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, their capex guidance is the first test of whether that move extends or reverses.
RISEx The Fed's blackout period, earnings and Friday's flash PMIs carry the week Fed officials have gone quiet ahead of the October 27 and 28 meeting, and pricing for an October hike has dropped to roughly 10% to 16%. With no rate decision and no CPI this week, earnings and Friday's flash PMIs have to carry the calendar.
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RISEx CPI Wednesday and Warsh Thursday test the October hold The market expects a Fed hold on October 28 and more hikes later. Two events this week, Wednesday's September CPI and Thursday's remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh, can move either half of that bet.
RISEx Hike odds have collapsed to 17%, yet Wednesday's Fed minutes could reverse that Prediction markets now put the odds of a Fed hike on October 28 near 17%, down from about 64% on September 27. The Fed's own account of why it hiked in September arrives Wednesday, and it is the one scheduled event this week that can push that number back up.
RISEx The RBA looks set to hike, and Friday's payrolls decide the Fed's October move Two weeks after the Fed's first hike since 2023, the Reserve Bank of Australia looks set to become the third major central bank to tighten policy in barely a month. It shares the calendar with the most consequential US jobs report since the Fed's pivot.
RISEx The Fed hiked, the BOJ hiked, and $16.6B in options to land the same week Not financial advice. This is a research piece, not investment guidance; always do your own research before trading. 💡Three weeks ago the debate was whether the Fed would cut before year end. Last week it hiked instead, and so did the Bank of Japan, in less than 48 hours. This
