Midterms, payrolls and no Fed: the week after a record exchange hack
The largest crypto theft on record landed last Thursday, and bitcoin closed the week near $77,300. With no Fed meeting, Tuesday's US midterms, four central banks and Friday's payrolls are the next tests
As always, this is not financial advice. This is a research piece, not investment guidance; always do your own research before trading.
Binance restarts withdrawals in phases after a $6.3B hack
Binance said Thursday, October 29, that roughly $6.3B had been stolen and halted withdrawals across the exchange. On Saturday, the FBI blamed North Korea, naming TraderTraitor actors it says are converting the haul into Ethereum and likely laundering it via DeFi platforms and instant-swap services, echoing TRMās earlier āhigh confidenceā attribution to the same unit. Binance says the breach began with a hacker gaining access through a compromised engineerās laptop.
Withdrawals are reopening in phases. Bitcoin went first on Sunday, November 1, followed by assets on other blockchains. By Monday Binance had restored 15 networks, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, XRP, Base, Dogecoin, Solana, Zcash and Sui. Each further phase waits for that blockchain to clear security and stability checks, and Binance has given no dates.
Binance data for Sunday showed $4.65B in withdrawals against $1.01B in deposits, a net outflow of $3.64B or about 2.1% of assets under management. A DefiLlama tally put net outflows above $5.8B over 24 hours, so the size of the exodus is still unclear.
Binance said on Saturday that it had replenished 90% of the stolen funds with company money, and by Sunday it put the figure at about 95%. It has also committed to fully cover the financial impact. Binance says the reserves for BTC, ETH, USDT, BNB, SOL, USDC and XRP among others are fully backed, and it has promised a full proof of reserves report. It puts the frozen funds at about $3B, largely in stablecoins.
Bitcoin fell about 5% on the news and dropped below $77,000. BTC closed Friday near $77,302, down 4.3% on the week, and ETH near $2,243.75, down 5.6%. On RISEx, BTC trades at $77,822.80 and ETH at $2,265.85.
The loss is roughly four times the previous record, a $1.5B theft in February 2025 attributed to the Lazarus Group. For market impact, the closer comparison is FTX: its roughly $8B shortfall became public on November 10, 2022, and bitcoin fell about 13% over the following days to a multi-year low.
The market reaction so far is about 5% for bitcoin and nearly 10% for BNB, against a record loss. Withdrawals reopening and a named attacker settle two open questions, and Binance says it has replaced about 95% of the loss. Whether the effect stays contained now depends on how quickly the remaining networks reopen and how much more capital leaves
Midterms Tuesday, payrolls Friday
All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are on the ballot Tuesday, with control of Congress at stake. This should treat the result as a binary risk event for the dollar and risk assets into Wednesday.
October nonfarm payrolls are due Friday at 8:30am ET (13:30 UTC), the first full jobs report after the midterms. No consensus figure for payrolls or unemployment was found. September's report showed +29K payrolls, 4.2% unemployment and average hourly earnings up 3.0% year on year.
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10 to 2 vote and meets next on December 9 to 10, with a hike still priced.
With no Fed to anchor rates, the midterm result and Friday's payrolls are the main scheduled inputs for the dollar and rate expectations. Without a consensus figure, September's +29K is the only reference point for Friday's reaction.
Four central banks, none of them is the Fed
The Reserve Bank of Australia decides Tuesday at 2:30pm Sydney time, which is 10:30pm ET Monday. The cash rate is 4.60% after a 25bp hike on September 29. Polymarket prices a further 25bp hike to 4.85% at 90.5%, with a hold at 9%, while RBA Rate Watch's futures model puts a hold at 30.71% and any rise at 69.17%. Both lean toward a hike but disagree on how firmly.
The Riksbank decides Wednesday at 9:30am CET (3:30am ET), and Norges Bank decides Thursday at 10:00am CET (4:00am ET).
The Bank of England decides Thursday at 12:00pm GMT (7:00am ET), alongside its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. Bank Rate is 3.75%, held since December 2025. September's hold was a 6 to 3 vote, with three members dissenting for a hike. FinanceCalendar's base case is a hold. Markets are divided between one to two cuts by year end and Oxford Economics' call for no change through 2027, and a hike is not currently priced. A prediction-market snapshot showed contradictory prices, so no odds are quoted.
ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% and the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% in an 8 to 1 vote, with one dissent for an immediate hike.
The RBA has a clear lean toward a hike, though sources disagree on how strong. The Bank of England leans toward a hold with a split committee, and its Monetary Policy Report lands the same morning.
Metals at one-year lows, oil tied to the war
Gold closed Friday near $3,884.90, down 3.1% on the week and at a one-year low. Silver closed near $49.14, down 8.9% on the week after a 5.8% drop on Friday, its first close below $50 since November 2025. XAU trades at $3,893.94 and XAG at $49.636 on RISEx.
Brent closed at $113.10, down 3.3% on the week from $116.93. The US and Israel's war on Iran is in its eighth month. A tanker was struck by an explosive device in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and Houthi forces claim a strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery. Tehran has reportedly rejected a proposed settlement, and the US blockade remains. Trump has reportedly signaled that further strikes on Iran could follow the midterms.CL trades at $102.937 and BZ at $112.309 on RISEx.
Metals head into four central bank decisions with no Fed meeting to change the rate path. Oil trades on war headlines, and a post-midterm escalation is the next dated risk the reports flag for CL and BZ.
US stocks end the week on another AI scare
Stocks sold off on what analyst called an "AI cash-burn" scare. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.9% on Friday, Intel fell 28.6% and the Nasdaq posted its worst month since March 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93% as money rotated into bonds. On RISEx, SPY trades at $758.11, QQQ at $696.52 and INTC at $65.822.
This is the second sharp AI-linked drop in eight days, after the October 22 selloff. The next scheduled swing factors for SPY and QQQ are the midterm result and Friday's payrolls.
The week, day by day
- Monday, November 2: ISM manufacturing PMI around 10:00am ET, with the date still listed as estimated. Binance's phased restart of withdrawals continues after the first batch opened Sunday.
- Tuesday, November 3: US midterms and the RBA at 2:30pm Sydney time.
- Wednesday, November 4: the Riksbank at 3:30am ET and ISM services PMI around 10:00am ET, also an estimated date.
- Thursday, November 5: Norges Bank at 4:00am ET, the Bank of England at 7:00am ET and Zcash NU7.
- Friday, November 6: October payrolls at 8:30am ET.
What to watch on the exchange
FAQ
How much was stolen in the Binance hack?
Binance disclosed on October 29 that about $6.3B was stolen, which reports call the largest crypto theft on record.
Has Binance resumed withdrawals?
In phases. The first began on Sunday, November 1, with more assets and networks to follow as security checks are completed.
Did bitcoin fall after the Binance hack?
Yes, about 5% on the news, to below $77,000. It closed the week near $77,302, down 4.3%.
Is there a Fed meeting this week?
No. The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28, with a December 9 to 10 hike still priced.
Which central banks decide this week?
The RBA on Tuesday, the Riksbank on Wednesday, and Norges Bank and the Bank of England on Thursday.
When are the US midterm elections?
Tuesday, November 3, with all 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats on the ballot.
When is the October jobs report?
Friday, November 6 at 8:30am ET.