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Hike odds have collapsed to 17%, yet Wednesday's Fed minutes could reverse that

Prediction markets now put the odds of a Fed hike on October 28 near 17%, down from about 64% on September 27. The Fed's own account of why it hiked in September arrives Wednesday, and it is the one scheduled event this week that can push that number back up.

Alain Nguyen

• 5 min read
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Hike odds have collapsed to 17%, yet Wednesday's Fed minutes could reverse that

As always, this is not financial advice. This is a research piece, not investment guidance; always do your own research before trading.

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Prediction markets now put the odds of a Fed hike on October 28 near 17%, down from about 64% on September 27. The Fed's own account of why it hiked in September arrives Wednesday, and it is the one scheduled event this week that can push that number back up. Crypto is looking to run a busy week on its own: a rehearsal of Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade, TOKEN2049 in Singapore, two token supply events and an XRP treasury vehicle waiting to list on Nasdaq.

The odds are lowering

Data from Kalshi and Polymarket are showing a sharp collapse in hiking odd. The odds of a hike at the October 28 meeting fell from about 64% on September 27 to about 17% as of 1:50am ET on October 5, with a hold price near 83%.

Rates are doing most of the work

The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 5.34%, a multi-decade high and the main headwind for gold and other non-yielding assets. XAU is trading around $4,156 per ounce on RISEx as it absorbs last week’s pullback. Oil is holding firm, with WTI near $90 and Brent around $102, driven by Iran war and Strait of Hormuz headlines. OPEC+ met October 4-5 and left November output targets unchanged.

Wednesday’s FOMC minutes deserve your attention

There are no major central-bank decisions on the calendar this week. The next FOMC meeting isn’t until October 27-28, making Wednesday’s minutes from the September 15–16 meeting the biggest scheduled catalyst for this week.

Minutes are usually a footnote. But this time it is the first detailed look at the committee’s thinking behind a hike. Any hint of further tightening could unwind the market’s recent repricing; language that points toward a pause would lock it in.The rest of the US data calendar probes the same question: S&P Global and ISM services PMIs on Monday, jobless claims on Thursday, and University of Michigan sentiment and factory orders on Friday.

Crypto runs a calendar of its own

Bitcoin’s 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages are closing in on their first clean bullish alignment since 2025. Price briefly pushed to an eight‑month high before easing back. BTC is trading around $86,100 on RISEx, up roughly 1.1% over the past 24 hours.

Ethereum hits a key checkpoint Tuesday: the Glamsterdam upgrade goes live on the Sepolia testnet at 13:53 UTC. This is a rehearsal, a mainnet timing is still TBD, with Q4 2026 as the target window. The upgrade includes enshrined proposer‑builder separation, block‑level access lists, and gas repricing.

TOKEN2049 Singapore kicks off Wednesday at Marina Bay Sands and runs through Thursday, with more than 25,000 attendees expected and side events from Oct. 5–11. It’s historically a magnet for altcoin listing chatter and partnership announcements, meaning elevated headline risk into the second half of the week, landing the same day as the minutes.

Three single-name catalysts are lining out: Ethena’s ENA sees a 20% supply lock-up waiver event Monday; any selling still requires foundation sign-off, so it’s a potential overhang, not a confirmed one. A HYPE token unlock follows Tuesday, but reports vary widely on size, so prudent to treat any dollar estimate as unverified until a primary vesting schedule confirms it. Finally, Evernorth’s XRP treasury vehicle (XRPN), which holds roughly 473M XRP following shareholder approval on Sept. 30, is expected to list on Nasdaq this week, although the exact date hasn’t been confirmed.

The week, day by day

  • Monday, October 5: S&P Global US Services PMI (9:45am ET) and ISM Services PMI (10:00am ET) kick off the week with the first growth read. Ethena’s ENA lock-up waiver event follows, with any sales subject to foundation approval.
  • Tuesday, October 6: US Trade Balance (Aug, 8:30am ET) and Eurozone Retail Sales set the macro tone, with Dallas Fed President Logan speaking at 6:00pm ET. On-chain, Glamsterdam goes live on Sepolia at 13:53 UTC, and a HYPE token unlock hits the same day.
  • Wednesday, October 7: the week’s key catalyst. FOMC minutes from the Sep 15–16 meeting drop at 2:00pm ET. TOKEN2049 Singapore opens at Marina Bay Sands.
  • Thursday, October 8: Weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am ET), expected 195K. TOKEN2049 rolls on, and Governor Waller speaks in Istanbul.
  • Friday, October 9: University of Michigan prelim consumer sentiment and Factory Orders (both 10:00am ET), plus KC Fed President Schmid at 9:30am ET. Deribit’s weekly BTC/ETH options expiry also lands Friday, smaller than the Oct 30 monthly.

Any day this week. Evernorth's XRPN debut on Nasdaq, date not yet confirmed.

What to watch on the exchange

  • BTC and ETH: FOMC minutes Wednesday and the Monday ISM Services PMI, layered with TOKEN2049 headline risk Wednesday and Thursday and Friday's weekly options expiry. ETH also has the Glamsterdam testnet rehearsal on Tuesday.
  • XRP: Evernorth's XRPN debut on Nasdaq is a name-specific demand catalyst independent of the macro calendar, with the date still unconfirmed.
  • HYPE: Tuesday's token unlock is a same-week supply event, size unconfirmed.
  • ENA: Monday's 20% supply lock-up waiver, contingent on foundation approval.
  • XAU and XAG: with no CPI this week, the FOMC minutes and Friday's Michigan sentiment print are the main scheduled swing factors for real-yield expectations, against a 10-year yield near 5.34%.
  • CL and BZ: Iran war and Strait of Hormuz headlines remain the driver, with no new OPEC+ catalyst after the meeting that just concluded.
  • QQQ and SPY: a quiet week for company catalysts, with big bank earnings not starting until October 13, so index moves this week are macro-driven by the minutes Wednesday and Michigan sentiment Friday.

FAQ

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in October?
About 17% as of October 5, with a hold priced near 83%, based on an average of Kalshi and Polymarket for the October 28 decision. The same average had hike odds near 64% on September 27.

Why do the FOMC minutes matter this week?
The minutes from the September 15-16 meeting publish Wednesday, October 7, at 2:00pm ET. They are the first detailed account of why the Fed hiked, and with market pricing already near an 83% hold, hawkish language could reverse the repricing of the past week.

Is there a central bank rate decision this week?
No major one falls inside October 5 to 9. The next FOMC meeting is October 27 and 28.

What is Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade and when does it go live?
Glamsterdam introduces enshrined proposer-builder separation, block-level access lists and gas repricing. It activates on the Sepolia testnet Tuesday, October 6, at 13:53 UTC, which is a rehearsal only. Mainnet activation is unscheduled with a Q4 2026 target.

What is TOKEN2049 and why do traders watch it?
TOKEN2049 Singapore runs October 7 and 8 at Marina Bay Sands, with more than 25,000 attendees expected. It has historically been a cluster point for altcoin listing and partnership headlines.

What is Evernorth's XRPN and when does it list?
XRPN is Evernorth's XRP treasury vehicle, holding about 473M XRP after shareholder approval completed on September 30. It is expected to debut on Nasdaq this week, with the exact date not confirmed.

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